College Football Picks: Week 12

College football lines, spreads and predictions for Week 12

Week 11 Recap: The wins have continued to pile on as we have gone four consecutive weeks with a positive performance. With a record of 10-8 over the weekend, total earnings jumped to $242.38. While Week 12 may not have the glamour of previous Saturdays, there is still a solid slate of games with plenty of upset opportunities to shake up the college football world.

As a note, all wagers are at -110 odds and I make the majority of my plays the morning after opening lines have been released. Visit http://www.vegasinsider.com for updated points and spreads.

Minnesota (+3.5) vs Northwestern (Last week I correctly called the Wildcats to upset Iowa. This week I like the Golden Gophers who are an entirely different team at home…. 5-1 versus 0-4 on the road. PJ Fleck’s squad is coming off a dominating win against Purdue, so I’ll take anything at a field goal or more.) 

Middle Tennessee State (+16.5) at Kentucky (It’s been SIX WEEKS since Kentucky has scored more than 17-points in a game. MTSU is a solid 7-3 and I wouldn’t trust this Wildcat team to put up three scores against a high school team at this point.) 

Arkansas (+21.5) at Mississippi State (The Razorbacks looked respectable against LSU and I still do not hold much confidence in the Bulldogs offense. Miss State should win but three touchdowns is a stretch.)

Ohio State (-14) at Maryland (Last week I said Ohio State needed to win by more than a field goal to look at all like a playoff team. Well, they won by 20 against a half-decent Michigan State team. There’s no reason they don’t do the same against a porous Maryland squad.)

Nebraska (+3) vs Michigan State (Michigan State has a great defense so it’s too bad their offense is completely worthless. Scott Frost seems to have the Huskers moving in the right direction and a future star in Adrian Martinez.) 

NC State (-14.5) at Louisville (Wake Forest came out of nowhere to knock-off the Wolfpack last week but the Deamon Deacons also beat the Cardinals by 21 in the ‘Ville.)

Utah (-6.5) at Colorado (The Buffs are spiraling out of control while the Utes lost yours truly money last week when they ran all over Oregon.) 

Syracuse (+11) vs Notre Dame (Both of the Syracuse’s losses were by less than a touchdown. Ian Book won’t be 100% for the Irish and this ‘Cuse team has averaged 46 points in their last four games.) 

Utah State (-26) at Colorado State (Utah State is 9-1 this year ATS and I expect this trend to continue with a pummeling of CSU. The Rams are rough and Utah State has one of the most exciting offenses in football.) 

West Virginia (-4.5) at Oklahoma State (In a conference where no one knows what a defense is, WVU at least has a mediocre secondary. OK State might as well not not send anyone onto the field when they don’t have the ball. Give me Grier and the ‘Neers by a touchdown.)

Liberty (+33) at Auburn (Auburn is a mess and looks far from the SEC West champs of last season. They should easily run away with this game but Gus Malzhan knows a 50-point win against Liberty means nothing unless his team is 100% healthy for Bama.)

UAB (+28) at Texas A&M (Talk about a trap game. The Aggies are reeling after a 5-2 start in which their only losses were against the top two teams in the country. They’ve now dropped 2 of 3 and have to take on a 9-1 UAB team that leads the nation in sacks. Did I mention that A&M is 121st in the nation in sacks allowed?) 

Duke (+29.5) at Clemson (Duke actually has a decent team and quarterback Daniel Jones has NFL potential. I’ll take the 7-3 Blue Devils to keep this one within four touchdowns.) 

Stanford (-1.5) at Cal (The Golden Bears simply can’t score. Their defense has played exceptionally well but I feel this is the week things fall apart for a team that hasn’t reached 16 points in three straight weeks.) 

Southern Miss (+3) at LA Tech (Southern Miss. loves close games, with their last three outings all decided by a field goal or less. It’s also their senior day and the team is vying for a bowl bid.) 

Boston College (+1) at Florida State (I am 2-0 when picking against the ‘Noles and 0-2 when picking in their favor. Congrats to FSU for winning the inaugural award for College football’s “Biggest Waste of Talent”.) 

Arizona State (+4.5) at Oregon (Herm Edwards has these Sun Devils playing at a high level. Meanwhile, Oregon looks like a lost team after dropping 3 of 4.) 

Over/Under:

Miami at Virginia Tech (Over 38.5) (I understand neither offense is great but when I saw this opening on William Hill’s bookie site I couldn’t pass it up.)  

San Diego State at Fresno State (Under 52.5) (These two teams have gone under the line in their past five meetings. Both defenses are solid so let’s make it six straight.)  

College Gameday Pick ’em: 

UCF- 51 Cincinnati- 42 (Gameday heads to the home of the faux National Champs and their 22 game win streak. The Bearcats are a formidable opponent and UCF puts up little resistance on defense. Barring any inclement weather in Orlando, I expect a fast paced shootout that stays close into the fourth quarter. )

Overall: 31-19 (62%)

ATS: 24-16

O/U: 3-3

Gameday: 4-0

Earnings: +$242.38

College Football Picks: Week 11

College football lines, spreads and predictions for Week 11

Week 10 Recap: Statement Saturday turned into a successful betting weekend, with our picks going 13-5 overall and 12-4 ATS. With a weekly earnings gain of $121.85, we’re sitting at $211.18 over three weeks and looking to cash in as the season winds down.

As a note, all wagers are at -110 odds and I make the majority of my plays the morning after opening lines have been released. Visit http://www.vegasinsider.com for updated points and spreads.

Fresno State (-2.5) at Boise State (Fresno has given up a touchdown or less in four of their last five games. Boise State can score but I like the Bulldogs to win the Mountain West this year and improve to 9-1.) 

WVU (-11.5) vs TCU (I usually stay away from putting money on teams to cover double-digit spreads, but I like West Virginia at anything under two touchdowns against a Horned Frog team that has looked abysmal the past four weeks.) 

Wisconsin (+10) at Penn State (This has been a lost season for the Nittany Lions, who have lost 3 of 5. On a positive note for the Badgers, even if Alex Hornibrook is out it’s not like their offense will be missing much.) 

Maryland (EVEN) at Indiana (Lots of respect for this Terrapin team that has battled through incredible adversity and the death of a teammate. The Terps become bowl eligible with a win and their next two games are against Ohio State and Penn State. In order to play in December, Maryland needs to leave the Hoosier state victorious.)

Ohio State (-3) at Michigan State (If the most recent CFP playoff poll tells us anything, it’s that winning ugly won’t be enough for the one-loss Buckeyes. Ohio State needs to show they belong in the playoff conversation and anything closer than a three point win won’t do that.) 

Troy (+1) at Georgia Southern (The de facto Sun Belt championship is a toss-up and I like the defensive team to prevail. Troy has talent up front while Southern runs their offense between the tackles.)

Oklahoma State (+21) at Oklahoma (Neither team can play defense and in the Sooner’s last six wins over the Pokes only one has been by more than ten points.)

Mississippi State (+24.5) at Alabama (Nick Fitzgerald is enough of an athlete to make a play or two against the Tide. I don’t expect Saban to risk much from a banged up Tua and Bama will be looking to win without injury as opposed to crushing souls.)

Northwestern (+11) at Iowa (This is a resilient Wildcat team that plays smart and discipline. If I ran an “upset” segment, this might be my pick of the week.) 

Michigan (-36.5) at Rutgers (Picked up at the open but I even like the 39 points Caesar’s is giving. Michigan’s defense should have a field day with an atrocious Rutgers offense. The Wolverines shouldn’t give up a touchdown if they play at 50% effort.) 

Washington State (-5.5) at Colorado (The Buffs will likely drop their 5th straight after starting the season 5-0. Meanwhile, Wazzu is sitting on the edge of the CFP playoff picture.) 

Auburn (+14.5) at Georgia (Auburn seems to have found its footing, rattling off back to back wins against Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I look for the Tigers to compete and keep the Dawgs within two scores.)

Oregon (+3.5) at Utah (Oregon is somehow the underducks against a Ute team that will have to rely on the play of a backup quarterback… who has a 42% completion rate. I understand the Ducks has disappointed but Vegas has me confused on this one.) 

Cincinnati (+7) vs USF (Grabbed this game when it opened and the spread has since doubled. USF might as well not send their defense onto the field and Cincy can run, pass and play great D. This one could be a Bearcat blowout.) 

LSU (-12.5) at Arkansas (Arkansas has two wins. Those wins are against Tulsa and Eastern Illinois. Those two teams are a combined 4-14. Tigers should be extremely motivated and even the worst post-Bama hangover shouldn’t keep the Bayou Bengals from a two touchdown win.) 

Florida State (+19.5) at Notre Dame (I get it, the Nole’s are terrible… but a three touchdown deficit against the Irish is a lot. I also find this to be a trap game for Notre Dame, as they won’t have quarterback Ian Book. Florida State has to have some athletes that can compete right? Plus, I’m undefeated this year picking against Notre Dame to cover.)  

Over/Under:

Texas at Texas Tech (Over 62) (This one should be a shootout with neither team knowing how to play defense. Last year, the final settled at 50 points in what was viewed as a “low scoring affair”.)  

College Gameday Pick ’em: 

Clemson- 38 Boston College- 20 (Boston College puts up a fight but they’re no match for Clemson who rolls in another Gameday blowout.)

Overall: 21-11 (66%)

ATS: 16-8

O/U: 2-3

Gameday: 3-0

Earnings: +$211.18

College Football Picks: Week 10

College football lines, spreads and predictions for Week 10

Week 9 Recap: We went 5-2 overall with Iowa, Kentucky and Navy all getting wins ATS, raising our two week earnings to $89.33. As a note, all wagers are at -110 odds and I make the majority of my plays the morning after opening lines have been released. Visit http://www.vegasinsider.com for updated points and spreads.

Arguably the best game slate of the college football season, so let’s find the winners and make some money.

Pitt (+7.5) at Virginia (This Panther team is ridiculously unpredictable and Virginia isn’t known for blowing anyone out. Clemson might run away with the Atlantic title, but no team seems to want to win the Coastal division, so let’s keep the chaos rolling and bank on a close one.) 

Nebraska (+21.5) at Ohio State (I grabbed this line early and by publication it’ll probably be around 17. This Buckeye team can’t run, or stop the run. Huskers have rolled off two straight and look much improved with a healthy Adrian Martinez/Devine Ozigbo combo.) 

Georgia Tech (-4.5) at North Carolina (UNC has an abysmal run defense and Tech loves to run. The Tar Heels season is virtually over, while the Yellow Jackets are fighting for bowl eligibility.) 

NC State (-6.5) vs Florida State (The ‘Noles are terrible and the Wolfpack can put up points at the very least. In a battle between two reeling teams, I’ll take the one with more to play for.) 

WVU (+2.5) at Texas (Hoped this game would bump to a field goal for added support but the line hasn’t budged. This is the make or break game for Will Grier’s long-shot Heisman campaign and Texas just let a former walk-on throw for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns.) 

Iowa (+3) at Purdue (Two weeks ago, I would’ve taken Purdue -3 and not thought twice about it. That of course, was before I watched their pitiful performance against Michigan State.)

Penn State (+12) at Michigan (I am still not convinced Shea Patterson is a quality starters and two scores seems like a stretch for a team with a mediocre offense.)

Florida (-5.5) vs Missouri (I’ll take Florida to win this game by a touchdown in The Swamp. Mizzou is 0-4 in the SEC and the #11 Gators still have plenty to play for with being the highest two-loss team in the first CFP poll.) 

Northwestern (+10.5) vs Notre Dame (Betting against Notre Dame to cover the spread has netted me $32 in profits this year. Pat Fitzgerald and his Wildcats have a chance to make history at home and they almost pulled off a stunner against Michigan earlier this season.)

LA Tech (+24) at Miss. St (This is the same LA Tech team that only trailed LSU by 3 points in the 4th. State Bulldogs should win, but don’t be surprised if the Tech Bulldogs hang around in Starkville.)

LSU (+15) vs Alabama (I firmly believe no one is beating Bama but LSU won’t back down and Death Valley should be electric. Westgate has raised their spread to +15 so grab the extra half point and join me in praying that Tua is mortal.) 

Texas Tech (+13.5) vs Oklahoma (Grab anything above 10.5 as Tech dominated OK State and kept WVU and Iowa State within 10. Oklahoma is rolling, but craziness is always expected under the lights in Lubbock.) 

USC (Pick ’em) vs Oregon State (Trojans have seemingly settled for mediocrity, although they should have enough athletes to beat a bad Beavers squad that is 1-19 against FBS foes. This one opened as a surprise pick’em and has since bounced to two touchdowns.) 

Stanford (+10) at Washington (The Pac-12 tends to cannibalize itself each week, so don’t be shocked if the Cardinal pull the upset. Neither team has been impressive and Washington quarterback Jake Browning was benched in their loss against Cal.) 

Utah State (+18) at Hawaii (Utah State likes to pummel teams, they’ve won three of their last four by over 25 points. Hawaii is highly pummel-able and just lost to Fresno State by 30.) 

O/U Picks:

Kentucky vs Georgia (Under 46.5) (I’ve never been more unsure on what to play in a game. I wanted to sit on the sidelines and not make a bet, but this is the presumptive SEC East Championship game and I can let my readers down. My mind says UGA in a blowout, but my heart loves this Wildcat defense. I expect a slug fest between the trenches, with both teams struggling to score.) **I have bought two points to raise the total, lowering my payout to +100**

Boston College at Virginia Tech (Under 57.5) (Each time I ran my simulation, I came out with a final around 48. I like 28-20 for the score, which sits safely under the current line.)  

College Gameday Pick ’em: 

Alabama-24 vs LSU-13 (LSU keeps things close going into the half, but Tua and the Tide are too much for the Tigers, who fail to produce offensively.)

Overall: 8-6 (57%)

ATS: 5-4

O/U: 1-2

Gameday: 2-0

Earnings: +$89.33

College Football Picks: Week 9

College football lines, spreads and predictions for week 9

Week 8 Recap: We hit home runs with Stanford and LSU but with the remaining four picks missing, it’s time to right the ship and cash in this week.

Spread Picks: 

Navy (+24.5) vs Notre Dame (Midshipman aren’t great but 25 points is a lot to cover and the Fighting Irish have a tendency to allow bad teams to hang around.)

Kentucky (+7) at Missouri (As if they needed any extra motivation, 12th ranked Wildcats are the undercats against Tigers, who are 0-3 in SEC play.)

Iowa (+7.5) at Penn State (Hawkeyes are a solid football team and Nittany Lions have historically struggled against Iowa. Expect a barnburner in Happy Valley.) 

Colorado State (-1.5) vs Wyoming (Cowboys have the second worst scoring offense in the country, while CSU is desperate for wins to become bowl eligible.) 

Texas A&M (+3) at Mississippi State (Another ranked SEC team that opens as the surprise underdog. Kellen Mond has improved each week and the Bulldog’s offense is pitiful.) 

O/U Picks:

Oregon at Arizona Under 65 (This Duck squad has offensive shortcomings and Arizona doesn’t even know who their quarterback will be. I think 38-16 is a reasonable score and well under the line.)

College Gameday Pick ’em: (No money here, just channeling my inner Lee Corso)

Georgia-28 vs Florida-24 (In what could decide the SEC East, Georgia wins the most anticipated game this rivalry has seen since the Tim Tebow-Mark Rict era. Florida has improved but still needs a year to develop defensively.)

Overall: 3-4

ATS: 2-2

O/U: 0-2

Gameday: 1-0

Earnings: +$11.20