College Football Picks: Week 11

College football lines, spreads and predictions for Week 11

Week 10 Recap: Statement Saturday turned into a successful betting weekend, with our picks going 13-5 overall and 12-4 ATS. With a weekly earnings gain of $121.85, we’re sitting at $211.18 over three weeks and looking to cash in as the season winds down.

As a note, all wagers are at -110 odds and I make the majority of my plays the morning after opening lines have been released. Visit http://www.vegasinsider.com for updated points and spreads.

Fresno State (-2.5) at Boise State (Fresno has given up a touchdown or less in four of their last five games. Boise State can score but I like the Bulldogs to win the Mountain West this year and improve to 9-1.) 

WVU (-11.5) vs TCU (I usually stay away from putting money on teams to cover double-digit spreads, but I like West Virginia at anything under two touchdowns against a Horned Frog team that has looked abysmal the past four weeks.) 

Wisconsin (+10) at Penn State (This has been a lost season for the Nittany Lions, who have lost 3 of 5. On a positive note for the Badgers, even if Alex Hornibrook is out it’s not like their offense will be missing much.) 

Maryland (EVEN) at Indiana (Lots of respect for this Terrapin team that has battled through incredible adversity and the death of a teammate. The Terps become bowl eligible with a win and their next two games are against Ohio State and Penn State. In order to play in December, Maryland needs to leave the Hoosier state victorious.)

Ohio State (-3) at Michigan State (If the most recent CFP playoff poll tells us anything, it’s that winning ugly won’t be enough for the one-loss Buckeyes. Ohio State needs to show they belong in the playoff conversation and anything closer than a three point win won’t do that.) 

Troy (+1) at Georgia Southern (The de facto Sun Belt championship is a toss-up and I like the defensive team to prevail. Troy has talent up front while Southern runs their offense between the tackles.)

Oklahoma State (+21) at Oklahoma (Neither team can play defense and in the Sooner’s last six wins over the Pokes only one has been by more than ten points.)

Mississippi State (+24.5) at Alabama (Nick Fitzgerald is enough of an athlete to make a play or two against the Tide. I don’t expect Saban to risk much from a banged up Tua and Bama will be looking to win without injury as opposed to crushing souls.)

Northwestern (+11) at Iowa (This is a resilient Wildcat team that plays smart and discipline. If I ran an “upset” segment, this might be my pick of the week.) 

Michigan (-36.5) at Rutgers (Picked up at the open but I even like the 39 points Caesar’s is giving. Michigan’s defense should have a field day with an atrocious Rutgers offense. The Wolverines shouldn’t give up a touchdown if they play at 50% effort.) 

Washington State (-5.5) at Colorado (The Buffs will likely drop their 5th straight after starting the season 5-0. Meanwhile, Wazzu is sitting on the edge of the CFP playoff picture.) 

Auburn (+14.5) at Georgia (Auburn seems to have found its footing, rattling off back to back wins against Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I look for the Tigers to compete and keep the Dawgs within two scores.)

Oregon (+3.5) at Utah (Oregon is somehow the underducks against a Ute team that will have to rely on the play of a backup quarterback… who has a 42% completion rate. I understand the Ducks has disappointed but Vegas has me confused on this one.) 

Cincinnati (+7) vs USF (Grabbed this game when it opened and the spread has since doubled. USF might as well not send their defense onto the field and Cincy can run, pass and play great D. This one could be a Bearcat blowout.) 

LSU (-12.5) at Arkansas (Arkansas has two wins. Those wins are against Tulsa and Eastern Illinois. Those two teams are a combined 4-14. Tigers should be extremely motivated and even the worst post-Bama hangover shouldn’t keep the Bayou Bengals from a two touchdown win.) 

Florida State (+19.5) at Notre Dame (I get it, the Nole’s are terrible… but a three touchdown deficit against the Irish is a lot. I also find this to be a trap game for Notre Dame, as they won’t have quarterback Ian Book. Florida State has to have some athletes that can compete right? Plus, I’m undefeated this year picking against Notre Dame to cover.)  

Over/Under:

Texas at Texas Tech (Over 62) (This one should be a shootout with neither team knowing how to play defense. Last year, the final settled at 50 points in what was viewed as a “low scoring affair”.)  

College Gameday Pick ’em: 

Clemson- 38 Boston College- 20 (Boston College puts up a fight but they’re no match for Clemson who rolls in another Gameday blowout.)

Overall: 21-11 (66%)

ATS: 16-8

O/U: 2-3

Gameday: 3-0

Earnings: +$211.18

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