College Football Picks: Conference Championship Week

College football lines, spreads and predictions for Conference Championship Week

Week 13 Recap: Thanksgiving Weekend provided much to be thankful for as I went 17-6 overall and blew past the $300 earnings target with a current total of $415.88 on the year. Heading into Championship week we currently hold a 65% win percentage and I am now looking to hit $500 by bowl season.

As a note, all wagers are at -110 odds and I make the majority of my plays
the morning after opening lines have been released.

Visit http://www.vegasinsider.com for updated points and spreads.

Friday:

Buffalo (-3) vs Northern Illinois (Can two Huskies win conference titles on the same night? I would potentially believe so, if the one’s from Illinois weren’t limping in on an ugly two game losing streak. Final: UofB-31 NIU- 13) 

Washington (-3) vs Utah (These Huskies beat the Utes in Utah by 14 early in the season. That was also when Utah had a healthy quarterback. Final: UW-21 UofU- 10) 

Saturday:

Texas (+8.5) vs Oklahoma (Oklahoma’s defense couldn’t stop a team of second-graders and there is nothing more the Longhorns want than to spoil OU’s CFP chances. This isn’t a Texas team that gets blown out by two scores typically. Final: Oklahoma- 95 Texas- 92)

Louisiana Lafayette (+18.5) at Appalachian State (In the inaugural Sun Belt Championship, I’ll look for the Ragin’ Cajuns to at least keep things respectable. APST- 38 LLU- 24) 

Middle Tennessee State (EVEN) vs UAB (Play this one at a neutral site and I like the Blazers. The Blue Raiders are 5-0 at home however and just beat UAB by 24. Final: MTSU-28 UAB- 20)

Memphis (+7.5) at UCF (Losing McKenzie Milton immeadiately makes UCF an unbalanced offense. Replacement QB Darriel Mack did little to quell my concerns with a 35% completion percentage in the second half against USF. Final: Memphis-35 UCF-33.)

Alabama (-10) vs Georgia (This game opened at 10 and has since jumped up to 13. The Tide should roll against the Dawgs and Tau will make his final Heisman push with a stellar performance against a defense that has flaws in its secondary. Final: BAMA-31 UGA- 17) 

Clemson (-21) vs Pitt (The Panthers looked pitiful in their 21-point loss against Miami. Clemson should feast on Pitt’s inability to throw the ball downfield. Final: CLEM-49 PITT- 20)

Boise State (-1.5) vs Fresno State (The Mountain West could provide the most entertaining championship game, with both teams rolling in at 10-2. I feel obligated to always pick the Bronco’s when playing on their Smurf Turf. Final: BSU-27 FSU- 23) 

Ohio State (-13) vs Northwestern (The Buckeye’s have the easiest conference title game out of the CFP hopefuls… except of course for Notre Dame… and Clemson. Their dominance over Michigan will be quickly overlooked by the committee if they can’t a hang a two score win over the Wildcats. Final: OSU-44 NW- 13)

Over/Under:

Alabama vs Georgia (Under 67.5) (I have this game falling between 48-54 points which sits safely below the opening point total.)  

Oklahoma vs Texas (Over 74.5) (Yeah… this game might have 100+ combined.)

Clemson vs Pitt (Over 51.5) (Clemson might put up 50 points on their own. Only concern here is a chance of rain in Charlotte but even then 60-70 points should be manageable.)  

College Gameday Pick ’em: 

Alabama- 31 Georgia- 17 (Georgia will need to apply pressure and hope to hang around into the fourth quarter. Both defenses are tough but Bama should be able to pull away late.)

Overall: 65-38 (63%)

ATS: 50-32

O/U: 9-4

Gameday: 6-1

Earnings: +$415.85

College Football Picks: Week 13

College football lines, spreads and predictions for Week 13

Week 12 Recap: The wins have continued to pile on as we have gone five consecutive weeks with a positive performance. With a record of 10-6 over the weekend, total earnings jumped to $298.55. In this Rivalry Week special, I am looking to break well over $300 with some Thanksgiving weekend winnings.

As a note, all wagers are at -110 odds and I make the majority of my plays
the morning after opening lines have been released. Visit www.vegasinsider.com for updated points and spreads.


Thursday:

Mississippi State (-8.5) at Ole Miss (The Bulldogs hung around against both LSU and Bama. Ole Miss lost by a combined 84 points against those two.) 


Friday:

Nebraska (+11.5) at Iowa (I like Iowa to win the game at home but the Huskers can keep things close. Nebraska has found its way and Scott Frost has the Blackshirts rolling.)

Oregon (-13.5) at Oregon State (The Civil War has been one of the most lopsided college football rivalries and I expect the Ducks offense to have a field day against the lowly Beavers in Corvallis.) 

UCF (-12) at South Florida (UCF is looking to close out a second consecutive undefeated regular season while the Bulls are a stumbling, bumbling mess.)

Oklahoma (-1) at West Virginia (WVU puts up plenty of points but there is one flaw I have noticed in their offense. They currently convert only 41% of their third downs which is nearly 10% less than OU.)

Washington State (-2) at Washington (Mike Leach and his ‘Cougs are on a roll. Washington State gives up points but is also currently 10th in the country in sacks. Pressure could make the difference in the most competitive Apple Cup this rivalry has ever seen.) 


Saturday:

Florida (-3) at Florida State (Picking the Gators to cover the spread has burned me already this year. That being said, the Nole’s are rough and Dan Mullen knows he needs to win the rivalry games to keep the Swamp happy.) 

Georgia Tech (+18.5) vs Georgia (The Bulldogs should pull away in this one but the Yellow Jackets rarely get blown out.) 

Syracuse (+8.5) at Boston College (In a perfect world I would wait to see whether or not ‘Cuse QB Eric Dungey will play. This isn’t a perfect world however and games start Thursday.) 

Michigan (-1.5) at Ohio State (I picked up two points in this game since I think a field goal could decide it. This bet has been placed at -100 odds or a break-even payout.) 

NC State (-6.5) at North Carolina (NC State bounced back against L’ville after a tough stretch. UNC is 2-8 and on the verge of firing their coach. Look for the Wolfpack to take advantage of their beaten down opponent.) 

Stanford (-2.5) at UCLA (Stanford should be rested after their game last week was postponed. The Bruins have looked underwhelming all season and have limited offensive firepower.)  

Northwestern (-16) vs Illinois (The Wildcats are feeling disrespected by the polls as they head into the Battle for Chicago.) 

Auburn (+25.5) at Alabama (The Tide are much better than the Tigers but this is Auburn’s super bowl.)

Tennessee (+4.5) at Vanderbilt (Both teams will be playing for a bowl bid and the Vols have been a mystery all season. I’ll take them at anything over a field goal.) 

Clemson (-20.5) vs South Carolina (Clemson will be sending out arguably its best senior class in school history when they take the field one final time in Death Valley. This game could get out of hand quickly.)

LSU (+3) at Texas A&M (The Tigers have one of the nation’s best defenses while the Aggies have been one of the nation’s most unpredictable teams.) 

Notre Dame (-6.5) at USC (Grabbed this game at the opening line. USC puts up a fight but unfortunately for the Notre Dame haters, myself included, the Irish should dominate.)

Utah (-7.5) vs BYU (The Utes are highly underrated and should dominate the Holy War. I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up as the Pac-12 champs.)

Arizona State (+1.5) vs Arizona (Herm Edwards and Company should pull the upset in this inter-state rivalry game against a hot and cold Wildcat squad.)

Over/Under:

Baylor at Texas Tech (Over 47.5) (Another game that I am confident one team could single-handedly cover. William Hill’s bookie site is banking on a one -sided blowout I’m sure but even that will produce 50+.)  

Oklahoma State at TCU (Over 51.5) (The Poke’s could put up 60 on their own in this one. Not sure why Caesar’s has pinned such a low number to this game but I’ll take it.)  

College Gameday Pick ’em: 

Michigan- 33 Ohio State- 31 (My prediction is that Shea Patterson is finally the difference maker the Wolverines need. With the Buckeyes holding onto a 31-30 lead, Patterson leads UM into field goal range and locks up a Big Ten Championship bid.)

 Overall: 41-25 (62%)

ATS: 31-22

O/U: 5-3

Gameday: 5-0

Earnings: +$298.55

College Football Picks: Week 12

College football lines, spreads and predictions for Week 12

Week 11 Recap: The wins have continued to pile on as we have gone four consecutive weeks with a positive performance. With a record of 10-8 over the weekend, total earnings jumped to $242.38. While Week 12 may not have the glamour of previous Saturdays, there is still a solid slate of games with plenty of upset opportunities to shake up the college football world.

As a note, all wagers are at -110 odds and I make the majority of my plays the morning after opening lines have been released. Visit http://www.vegasinsider.com for updated points and spreads.

Minnesota (+3.5) vs Northwestern (Last week I correctly called the Wildcats to upset Iowa. This week I like the Golden Gophers who are an entirely different team at home…. 5-1 versus 0-4 on the road. PJ Fleck’s squad is coming off a dominating win against Purdue, so I’ll take anything at a field goal or more.) 

Middle Tennessee State (+16.5) at Kentucky (It’s been SIX WEEKS since Kentucky has scored more than 17-points in a game. MTSU is a solid 7-3 and I wouldn’t trust this Wildcat team to put up three scores against a high school team at this point.) 

Arkansas (+21.5) at Mississippi State (The Razorbacks looked respectable against LSU and I still do not hold much confidence in the Bulldogs offense. Miss State should win but three touchdowns is a stretch.)

Ohio State (-14) at Maryland (Last week I said Ohio State needed to win by more than a field goal to look at all like a playoff team. Well, they won by 20 against a half-decent Michigan State team. There’s no reason they don’t do the same against a porous Maryland squad.)

Nebraska (+3) vs Michigan State (Michigan State has a great defense so it’s too bad their offense is completely worthless. Scott Frost seems to have the Huskers moving in the right direction and a future star in Adrian Martinez.) 

NC State (-14.5) at Louisville (Wake Forest came out of nowhere to knock-off the Wolfpack last week but the Deamon Deacons also beat the Cardinals by 21 in the ‘Ville.)

Utah (-6.5) at Colorado (The Buffs are spiraling out of control while the Utes lost yours truly money last week when they ran all over Oregon.) 

Syracuse (+11) vs Notre Dame (Both of the Syracuse’s losses were by less than a touchdown. Ian Book won’t be 100% for the Irish and this ‘Cuse team has averaged 46 points in their last four games.) 

Utah State (-26) at Colorado State (Utah State is 9-1 this year ATS and I expect this trend to continue with a pummeling of CSU. The Rams are rough and Utah State has one of the most exciting offenses in football.) 

West Virginia (-4.5) at Oklahoma State (In a conference where no one knows what a defense is, WVU at least has a mediocre secondary. OK State might as well not not send anyone onto the field when they don’t have the ball. Give me Grier and the ‘Neers by a touchdown.)

Liberty (+33) at Auburn (Auburn is a mess and looks far from the SEC West champs of last season. They should easily run away with this game but Gus Malzhan knows a 50-point win against Liberty means nothing unless his team is 100% healthy for Bama.)

UAB (+28) at Texas A&M (Talk about a trap game. The Aggies are reeling after a 5-2 start in which their only losses were against the top two teams in the country. They’ve now dropped 2 of 3 and have to take on a 9-1 UAB team that leads the nation in sacks. Did I mention that A&M is 121st in the nation in sacks allowed?) 

Duke (+29.5) at Clemson (Duke actually has a decent team and quarterback Daniel Jones has NFL potential. I’ll take the 7-3 Blue Devils to keep this one within four touchdowns.) 

Stanford (-1.5) at Cal (The Golden Bears simply can’t score. Their defense has played exceptionally well but I feel this is the week things fall apart for a team that hasn’t reached 16 points in three straight weeks.) 

Southern Miss (+3) at LA Tech (Southern Miss. loves close games, with their last three outings all decided by a field goal or less. It’s also their senior day and the team is vying for a bowl bid.) 

Boston College (+1) at Florida State (I am 2-0 when picking against the ‘Noles and 0-2 when picking in their favor. Congrats to FSU for winning the inaugural award for College football’s “Biggest Waste of Talent”.) 

Arizona State (+4.5) at Oregon (Herm Edwards has these Sun Devils playing at a high level. Meanwhile, Oregon looks like a lost team after dropping 3 of 4.) 

Over/Under:

Miami at Virginia Tech (Over 38.5) (I understand neither offense is great but when I saw this opening on William Hill’s bookie site I couldn’t pass it up.)  

San Diego State at Fresno State (Under 52.5) (These two teams have gone under the line in their past five meetings. Both defenses are solid so let’s make it six straight.)  

College Gameday Pick ’em: 

UCF- 51 Cincinnati- 42 (Gameday heads to the home of the faux National Champs and their 22 game win streak. The Bearcats are a formidable opponent and UCF puts up little resistance on defense. Barring any inclement weather in Orlando, I expect a fast paced shootout that stays close into the fourth quarter. )

Overall: 31-19 (62%)

ATS: 24-16

O/U: 3-3

Gameday: 4-0

Earnings: +$242.38

College Football Picks: Week 11

College football lines, spreads and predictions for Week 11

Week 10 Recap: Statement Saturday turned into a successful betting weekend, with our picks going 13-5 overall and 12-4 ATS. With a weekly earnings gain of $121.85, we’re sitting at $211.18 over three weeks and looking to cash in as the season winds down.

As a note, all wagers are at -110 odds and I make the majority of my plays the morning after opening lines have been released. Visit http://www.vegasinsider.com for updated points and spreads.

Fresno State (-2.5) at Boise State (Fresno has given up a touchdown or less in four of their last five games. Boise State can score but I like the Bulldogs to win the Mountain West this year and improve to 9-1.) 

WVU (-11.5) vs TCU (I usually stay away from putting money on teams to cover double-digit spreads, but I like West Virginia at anything under two touchdowns against a Horned Frog team that has looked abysmal the past four weeks.) 

Wisconsin (+10) at Penn State (This has been a lost season for the Nittany Lions, who have lost 3 of 5. On a positive note for the Badgers, even if Alex Hornibrook is out it’s not like their offense will be missing much.) 

Maryland (EVEN) at Indiana (Lots of respect for this Terrapin team that has battled through incredible adversity and the death of a teammate. The Terps become bowl eligible with a win and their next two games are against Ohio State and Penn State. In order to play in December, Maryland needs to leave the Hoosier state victorious.)

Ohio State (-3) at Michigan State (If the most recent CFP playoff poll tells us anything, it’s that winning ugly won’t be enough for the one-loss Buckeyes. Ohio State needs to show they belong in the playoff conversation and anything closer than a three point win won’t do that.) 

Troy (+1) at Georgia Southern (The de facto Sun Belt championship is a toss-up and I like the defensive team to prevail. Troy has talent up front while Southern runs their offense between the tackles.)

Oklahoma State (+21) at Oklahoma (Neither team can play defense and in the Sooner’s last six wins over the Pokes only one has been by more than ten points.)

Mississippi State (+24.5) at Alabama (Nick Fitzgerald is enough of an athlete to make a play or two against the Tide. I don’t expect Saban to risk much from a banged up Tua and Bama will be looking to win without injury as opposed to crushing souls.)

Northwestern (+11) at Iowa (This is a resilient Wildcat team that plays smart and discipline. If I ran an “upset” segment, this might be my pick of the week.) 

Michigan (-36.5) at Rutgers (Picked up at the open but I even like the 39 points Caesar’s is giving. Michigan’s defense should have a field day with an atrocious Rutgers offense. The Wolverines shouldn’t give up a touchdown if they play at 50% effort.) 

Washington State (-5.5) at Colorado (The Buffs will likely drop their 5th straight after starting the season 5-0. Meanwhile, Wazzu is sitting on the edge of the CFP playoff picture.) 

Auburn (+14.5) at Georgia (Auburn seems to have found its footing, rattling off back to back wins against Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I look for the Tigers to compete and keep the Dawgs within two scores.)

Oregon (+3.5) at Utah (Oregon is somehow the underducks against a Ute team that will have to rely on the play of a backup quarterback… who has a 42% completion rate. I understand the Ducks has disappointed but Vegas has me confused on this one.) 

Cincinnati (+7) vs USF (Grabbed this game when it opened and the spread has since doubled. USF might as well not send their defense onto the field and Cincy can run, pass and play great D. This one could be a Bearcat blowout.) 

LSU (-12.5) at Arkansas (Arkansas has two wins. Those wins are against Tulsa and Eastern Illinois. Those two teams are a combined 4-14. Tigers should be extremely motivated and even the worst post-Bama hangover shouldn’t keep the Bayou Bengals from a two touchdown win.) 

Florida State (+19.5) at Notre Dame (I get it, the Nole’s are terrible… but a three touchdown deficit against the Irish is a lot. I also find this to be a trap game for Notre Dame, as they won’t have quarterback Ian Book. Florida State has to have some athletes that can compete right? Plus, I’m undefeated this year picking against Notre Dame to cover.)  

Over/Under:

Texas at Texas Tech (Over 62) (This one should be a shootout with neither team knowing how to play defense. Last year, the final settled at 50 points in what was viewed as a “low scoring affair”.)  

College Gameday Pick ’em: 

Clemson- 38 Boston College- 20 (Boston College puts up a fight but they’re no match for Clemson who rolls in another Gameday blowout.)

Overall: 21-11 (66%)

ATS: 16-8

O/U: 2-3

Gameday: 3-0

Earnings: +$211.18

College Football Picks: Week 10

College football lines, spreads and predictions for Week 10

Week 9 Recap: We went 5-2 overall with Iowa, Kentucky and Navy all getting wins ATS, raising our two week earnings to $89.33. As a note, all wagers are at -110 odds and I make the majority of my plays the morning after opening lines have been released. Visit http://www.vegasinsider.com for updated points and spreads.

Arguably the best game slate of the college football season, so let’s find the winners and make some money.

Pitt (+7.5) at Virginia (This Panther team is ridiculously unpredictable and Virginia isn’t known for blowing anyone out. Clemson might run away with the Atlantic title, but no team seems to want to win the Coastal division, so let’s keep the chaos rolling and bank on a close one.) 

Nebraska (+21.5) at Ohio State (I grabbed this line early and by publication it’ll probably be around 17. This Buckeye team can’t run, or stop the run. Huskers have rolled off two straight and look much improved with a healthy Adrian Martinez/Devine Ozigbo combo.) 

Georgia Tech (-4.5) at North Carolina (UNC has an abysmal run defense and Tech loves to run. The Tar Heels season is virtually over, while the Yellow Jackets are fighting for bowl eligibility.) 

NC State (-6.5) vs Florida State (The ‘Noles are terrible and the Wolfpack can put up points at the very least. In a battle between two reeling teams, I’ll take the one with more to play for.) 

WVU (+2.5) at Texas (Hoped this game would bump to a field goal for added support but the line hasn’t budged. This is the make or break game for Will Grier’s long-shot Heisman campaign and Texas just let a former walk-on throw for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns.) 

Iowa (+3) at Purdue (Two weeks ago, I would’ve taken Purdue -3 and not thought twice about it. That of course, was before I watched their pitiful performance against Michigan State.)

Penn State (+12) at Michigan (I am still not convinced Shea Patterson is a quality starters and two scores seems like a stretch for a team with a mediocre offense.)

Florida (-5.5) vs Missouri (I’ll take Florida to win this game by a touchdown in The Swamp. Mizzou is 0-4 in the SEC and the #11 Gators still have plenty to play for with being the highest two-loss team in the first CFP poll.) 

Northwestern (+10.5) vs Notre Dame (Betting against Notre Dame to cover the spread has netted me $32 in profits this year. Pat Fitzgerald and his Wildcats have a chance to make history at home and they almost pulled off a stunner against Michigan earlier this season.)

LA Tech (+24) at Miss. St (This is the same LA Tech team that only trailed LSU by 3 points in the 4th. State Bulldogs should win, but don’t be surprised if the Tech Bulldogs hang around in Starkville.)

LSU (+15) vs Alabama (I firmly believe no one is beating Bama but LSU won’t back down and Death Valley should be electric. Westgate has raised their spread to +15 so grab the extra half point and join me in praying that Tua is mortal.) 

Texas Tech (+13.5) vs Oklahoma (Grab anything above 10.5 as Tech dominated OK State and kept WVU and Iowa State within 10. Oklahoma is rolling, but craziness is always expected under the lights in Lubbock.) 

USC (Pick ’em) vs Oregon State (Trojans have seemingly settled for mediocrity, although they should have enough athletes to beat a bad Beavers squad that is 1-19 against FBS foes. This one opened as a surprise pick’em and has since bounced to two touchdowns.) 

Stanford (+10) at Washington (The Pac-12 tends to cannibalize itself each week, so don’t be shocked if the Cardinal pull the upset. Neither team has been impressive and Washington quarterback Jake Browning was benched in their loss against Cal.) 

Utah State (+18) at Hawaii (Utah State likes to pummel teams, they’ve won three of their last four by over 25 points. Hawaii is highly pummel-able and just lost to Fresno State by 30.) 

O/U Picks:

Kentucky vs Georgia (Under 46.5) (I’ve never been more unsure on what to play in a game. I wanted to sit on the sidelines and not make a bet, but this is the presumptive SEC East Championship game and I can let my readers down. My mind says UGA in a blowout, but my heart loves this Wildcat defense. I expect a slug fest between the trenches, with both teams struggling to score.) **I have bought two points to raise the total, lowering my payout to +100**

Boston College at Virginia Tech (Under 57.5) (Each time I ran my simulation, I came out with a final around 48. I like 28-20 for the score, which sits safely under the current line.)  

College Gameday Pick ’em: 

Alabama-24 vs LSU-13 (LSU keeps things close going into the half, but Tua and the Tide are too much for the Tigers, who fail to produce offensively.)

Overall: 8-6 (57%)

ATS: 5-4

O/U: 1-2

Gameday: 2-0

Earnings: +$89.33